Carrots and one stick
I read _Nuclear War._
Here I begin to lay out the structure of a novel laying out a real possibility of permanently avoiding nuclear war.
# PART ONE (Season 1)
The Second Cold War will not end in detente nor in a stand off.
Upon understanding the certainty of nuclear war and its destruction of civilization, a few people began **meeting to solve the problem**--to remove nuclear weapon systems from the planet. Understanding the systemic failures of all prior approaches at disarmament, they imagined a move so radical, so counter cultural and so counter intuitive that they feared no one would take them, and their solution seriously. The Great Realization
They did **scenario exercises** until they were clear that the new way had more potential than anything previously considered. Models and Simulations and Easiest Route
How could the **dangerous idea** survive to ever see the light of day? A TV series is created, it represents the actual play to be enacted on the real world stage. Before the TV series is produced they began looking for the real world actors. They began meeting with people who understood the politics and the people in power in the US. Which of these might take this radical idea seriously? Safe Container
The meetings begin. The idea is potentially **treasonous**--if misunderstood, and misunderstanding is a given. Preparing the Offer
Biology offers some metaphors: the entire gut as well as the central nervous systems are instances of internalizing the outside. A neat trick that most people are unaware of. Taking the out side in is more commonly understood to be eating--killing and digesting. That is a totally different operation than **developing (forming) the structure** in the first place. Understanding the potential for radical development of something new vs. digestion of something old will be a challenge.
This begins to look more like a **metamorphosis** than an adaptation. Surprising **major benefits** arise from this new structure. Lesser Realizations Like a butterfly it has new capabilities. Metamorphosis is a different **paradigm** from day-to-day metabolism. But how do nation states **choose** to enter a metamorphosis? Do caterpillars choose the chrysalis? Is the nuclear war the transforming event? Could the certainty of nuclear annihilation be the impetus for the transformation. Does human civilization have the capability to choose transformation over self destruction? Donella Meadows addressed the power of paradigmatic moves and noted their rarity. We need a **black swan** here! Talk about a rare event with a big pay off!
Once the first big conceptual leap is taken, then **the many practical hurdles** are enumerated and investigated for solution and mitigations. We move on from the paradigmatic move to the complex and complicated problems that emerge. There are many many people who are ready to address complex problems and even more ready to deal with complicated problems. These folk can be working on essential and difficult problems. (This story is like the movie Armageddon, but the problem and the solution are right here on earth, not out is space.) Preparing the Offer
In order to make this happen we need to understand our own **country and citizens**. We also must understand the Chinese country and its citizens. There must be agreeable terms and there must be pressure relief mechanisms.
We must prepare and make a **trial offer** to China before making the idea of an offer known in the US.
If the trial offer is taken seriously we must co author with the Chinese a **TV series** to follow the movie that will have been made of the Nuclear War book. This TV Series is a very critical 21st century attempt at **sense making**--to open the way for a major change in international and intra-national relations. We need a few percent of the populations to actively work toward this new paradigm and we need to deal with a small percent who will actively oppose it. The goal is to increase the percentage of supporters and lower the percentage of those who actively oppose.
# PART TWO (Season 2)
Awakening to a call from the president of the United States, the chairman of the Peoples Republic of China's communist party is surprised. This is a call beyond his imagination. The president is amazingly calm and friendly. He makes it clear that this is serious and not needing an immediate response. Rather it needs time and the utmost secrecy. It is clearly meant to be the first of a long series of conversations of a type unknown in recent times. Both of these leaders leave the call fully understanding tha the **future of civilization** is in the balance.
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PART ONE
Irrevocable Laws Physical laws: System laws: Ashby's Law
The Second Cold War worse than the first, much worse.
The Great Realization of the inevitability of assured mutual destruction (AMD).
Lesser Realizations of the inadequacy of the UN to avert AMD. Realization of the inadequacy of two party systems. Set Theory Solution then From Sets to Nets The Growth Ponzi Scheme can end.
Easiest Route to unity, Going Meta?
Non-Nuclear Op-out States (Non-nuclear Texas and California become independent nations. All the rest become China.)
PART TWO
Awakening China realizes that they have no external enemies and no threat of AMD. China destroys all nuclear weapons to avoid internal conflicts using the threats of AMD.
Self Organizing All nuclear capable countries are "encouraged" to ceed themselves to China.
PART THREE
The Endemic Enemy China repurposes most military equipment and investment to social investment including detection and remedying corruption.
All nations are encouraged to ceed themselves to China.
Universal Basic Income is provided for every inhabitant of New China. Fraud is punishable by death.
PART FOUR (not the same story!)
All business and government is equipped with RenHanHeYi Technology. Blockchain is a public infrastructure and devoid of profit taking in its operation. All private blockchains are illegal.
No-Party Democratic Experiments are undertaken. Democracy is new and its potential is very poorly understood.
Role of story in motivating leaders. Esp. Movies. Have the movie “Nuclear War” motivate the protagonist and have movies and TV series motivate the gathered leaders in the US and then in China.
Allow the gravity of the situation elevate the key leaders to their best selves, to protectors of civilization and humanity—rather than partisan or nationalistic antagonistic motives. Have most leaders of nuclear capable nations aspire to their highest motives, in spite of all prior behaviors. Consider the possibility that one, probably N. Korea, will be unable to make the shift..
What kind of game strategy is it when everyone wins together or everyone loses together. A lifeboat scenario.
Recall the Lintz scenarios presented by Vietnam. No amount of systems thinking could deal with them because the context was multinational. One needed to go meta. To dissolve the paradox or impasse by using a larger context, in this case all the powerful nation states becoming one state with one political party and many democratic institutions. Democracy doesn’t scale to nation state level but does scale to groups of 15 and large webs of groups of 15.
Democratic webs across single party nation states.
Only actual national heads of state can address this problem. Not academics. Not think tanks. Not consultants. This is both simpler and more complex than any of those “types” can handle. And it requires immense risk taking and self-sacrifice, something almost unknown of academics and consultants. The solution is conceptually simple and direct. The implementation is wildly improvisational. What type and group can possibly handle this? In order to save civilization, not to save nationstatehood or political office or self aggrandizement?